How Newcastle ended up with Loris Karius in goal for their biggest game this century (2024)

This could have been Ben Foster’s swansong. One final Wembley appearance and an opportunity for the 39-year-old to make it a quartet of League Cup triumphs by defeating Manchester United, the club with whom he twice lifted the trophy in 2009 and 2010.

Rewind five months and, with the summer window closed, the former England international was the first free-agent goalkeeper who Dan Ashworth, Newcastle United’s sporting director, attempted to hastily recruit at Eddie Howe’s behest following Karl Darlow’s injury. Initially, Foster, released by Watford in June, was receptive, only to opt to retire instead.

The pool of alternatives available to Newcastle was minute. Any goalkeeper needed to be unattached, signed within 48 hours to meet the Premier League registration deadline and, ideally for Howe, have top-flight experience.

That is why Loris Karius — best known for his disastrous performance for Liverpool in the 2018 Champions League final — was brought out of obscurity to Tyneside.

“When Newcastle called me, I thought it was a great chance to go back to England and prove myself again,” Karius said in December.

And now the German, who was the fourth-choice goalkeeper for much of the season and has not appeared in a matchday squad since November, is set to make his first Newcastle appearance in the club’s biggest match this century: the League Cup final will be the northeast side’s first final since the 1999 FA Cup game against Manchester United.

If Karius, as expected, is selected ahead of Mark Gillespie to replace the suspended Nick Pope and the cup-tied Martin Dubravka, then he will join an exclusive list of players to make their Newcastle debut at Wembley.

The most recent? You may not even recall Antonio Barreca, the Italian left-back who spent an almost anonymous six months on loan from Monaco. Barreca’s solitary appearance came as an 86th-minute substitute against Tottenham Hotspur on February 2, 2019, during the north London club’s temporary stay at England’s national stadium.

Karius, like Barreca, may also only ever play once for Newcastle — given that nobody expects him to feature prominently beyond Sunday, regardless of the result.

The 29-year-old, whose most recent competitive appearance was for Union Berlin on February 28, 2021, is not only attempting to win Newcastle their first major trophy since 1969 and first domestic cup since 1955, but he is attempting to resurrect his own career: to secure a contract extension on Tyneside or prove he warrants another opportunity to be No 1 elsewhere.

“Obviously, the last few seasons have been a setback for me,” Karius said in December. “It has not been easy at times.”

Since May 26, 2018, Karius has been defined by his ill-fated performance against Real Madrid in the Champions League final in Kyiv. As Howe puts it, the goalkeeper now has “a magnificent chance to rewrite the story of his career”.

Once Karius became a Newcastle player, the head coach fought to keep hold of the German.

The goalkeeper’s initial deal expired in January and, although it contained an option to extend until June, some within the club were minded to release him given Dubravka was returning from his Manchester United loan early.

Once Karius’ contract was extended on January 19, he posted a pen-and-paper emoji on Instagram with the caption “To be continued”. Surely even he did not expect that a month on, following Pope’s red card against Liverpool, he would be deputising for the goalkeeper with the second-most clean sheets in Europe’s top-five leagues this season in a cup final.

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Last week, Karius and Gillespie were third- and fourth-choice goalkeepers respectively in normal circ*mstances, behind Pope and Dubravka. Yet, prior to the final hour of the January window, Karius was fourth choice and Gillespie fifth.

Despite agreeing the framework of Darlow’s loan to Hull midway through January, Howe insisted the deal only be ratified after Newcastle’s semi-final second leg with Southampton on January 31. Howe wanted Darlow on the bench behind Pope for such a vital match, not Karius.

When pondering the goalkeeping predicament this week, there has been no pretence among the coaching staff that losing Pope is anything but a hammer blow. Howe even accepted he “would do things differently” regarding Dubravka and Darlow if he had foreseen what would unfold, though both had requested to leave on loan.

NIGHTMARE! Nick Pope is SENT OFF! 🟥

He will now MISS the Carabao Cup final… pic.twitter.com/kDaVTZSA6T

— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) February 18, 2023

Intriguingly, the internal assessment is that Darlow and Karius are pretty much on par as goalkeepers. The impression being given is that, when directly contrasted, Karius’ big-game experience for Liverpool and Besiktas, particularly in the Champions League — even those calamitous moments — may have seen him selected ahead of Darlow were the latter still on Tyneside.

Whether that is merely an attempt to positively recast the situation with upbeat rhetoric is debatable, but Howe has spoken glowingly about Karius publicly and privately.

Although he did not declare that Karius will start at Wembley, regularly namechecking Gillespie during Newcastle’s pre-final media gathering on Tuesday, there seems little doubt the German will be selected.

Following Newcastle’s loss to Liverpool, Howe phoned Karius — who had trained at Benton that morning and was not part of the matchday squad — to connect with him and check he was in the right frame of mind for a huge week ahead. Howe detected that Karius, a relaxed character behind the scenes, was as ready as he could be.

As for Gillespie, he is a boyhood fan who was released from Newcastle’s academy as a 16-year-old before making more than 250 appearances in the EFL and Scottish Premiership for Carlisle United, Walsall and Motherwell. But, since re-signing for Newcastle in 2020, he has made only three appearances, all in the League Cup, the most recent against Newport County on September 30, 2020.

The 30-year-old has never played competitively under Howe and was omitted from the 25-man squad in September at less than a day’s notice following Darlow’s post-window injury. Gillespie was set to be named as third-choice keeper but was told by Howe, during an amicable face-to-face meeting, that he was being replaced by Karius. Had it been a week earlier, he would have gone out on loan.

Instead, he has a dream opportunity to be part of a Newcastle matchday squad at Wembley and potentially be called into action from the bench if needed, which would have been barely believable even a week ago.

An 18-year-old academy product, Max Thompson — son of Ray Thompson, Newcastle’s kitman for more than 33 years — is set to travel down as cover. He has only 10 Premier League 2 appearances to his name.

There is a distinct lack of competitive match practice among any of the available options, with Dubravka also unavailable and, ironically, more likely to secure a winners’ medal should Manchester United claim victory in London given that his only two appearances under Erik ten Hag came in the Carabao Cup. As the Slovakia international admits: “It is weird, like the script from a movie. What a story it is.”

Gillespie has played one under-21 match this season, against Middlesbrough on September 30, and the only time he was in a first-team squad was for the League Cup second-round tie against Tranmere Rovers on August 24.

Karius, meanwhile, has not been in a matchday squad since the third-round victory over Palace on November 11. He was named in eight squads before the World Cup but, once Darlow regained fitness in November and then Dubravka returned, he was shunted down the pecking order, failing to appear in any of the last 14. Often this season, he has not even travelled to away matches, highlighting how dramatically his status has shifted this week.

The key question, then, is how can Newcastle prepare a goalkeeper — one who is coming up to the second anniversary of his most recent competitive appearance — for a cup final inside eight days?

When it comes to actual training sessions, it is fewer than that. Newcastle had scheduled days off on Sunday and Monday, so Karius and Gillespie’s first drills with their team-mates as first- and second-choice keepers did not take place until Tuesday.

Instead, Karius was in Milan at the start of the week with his girlfriend, Diletta Leotta, the Italian TV presenter. Howe did not push for the planned trip to be cancelled because the mantra behind the scenes has been to treat this like a normal week.

Two days off post-Liverpool was agreed and to change that risked magnifying Karius’ mental and physical tasks even further. Although the German has a “fearless” tattoo on his neck and coaches at Mainz referred to his “mental toughness”, Newcastle are keen for him not to overthink the magnitude of the occasion on Sunday.

Off the field, Karius is said to be laidback and easygoing. “An ice-cool character” was the verdict from one of his former Mainz coaches. A man with an affinity for fashion and renowned for his good looks, Karius has hung out with Justin Bieber in Miami and enjoys Motocross riding.

He is well-liked by his team-mates — the German is often prominent during post-victory photos despite not playing — even if he is said to keep himself to himself, with many inside the club referencing how he is a calming presence due to his positive demeanour.

During sessions, however, he is focused and has impressed staff by pushing the other goalkeepers and maintaining standards. Howe will not accept players who lack commitment during training when they are out of the side and Karius’ attitude has never been questioned.

While understandably crestfallen on a personal level, Pope asked the backroom staff on Saturday night how he could best prepare his understudies for this week. Pope and Dubravka are spending sessions acting as deputies for Karius and Gillespie, prioritising the gameplan for Sunday, while offering encouragement and advice. Both will be at Wembley.

The work undertaken with the shot-stoppers, overseen by goalkeeper coach Shwan Jalal and Howe, has been largely unchanged other than the temporary reversal in hierarchical standings.

Howe is keen for Karius to build a relationship with the defence and so the German is spending time playing behind the back four. Pope, Kieran Trippier, Fabian Schar, Sven Botman and Dan Burn have complemented each other expertly, combining as a unit to boast the best defensive record in the Premier League, with only 15 goals conceded in 23 games.

With their No 1 missing, the coaches are hastily attempting to familiarise Karius with the defence and vice-versa. Stylistically, Karius is not as active as Pope when coming off his line — the England goalkeeper leads the Premier League in defensive actions outside his own penalty area, with 2.18 per 90 minutes — but the German is willing to roam and is seen as being better with his feet. Karius is also deemed to be a good shot-stopper, although not as good as Pope.

Five days of training together can only achieve so much though and, for all Howe’s insistence that Karius and Gillespie are “in a great physical condition to play”, neither has anything bordering on match sharpness.

Some inside the club suggest match fitness is more difficult for outfield players to attain than goalkeepers, but decision-making and in-game intuitions are only honed for shot-stoppers through game-time in pressurised scenarios.

Their last public appearances came in the same friendly: Karius played the first half and Gillespie the second in the 5-0 victory over Al Hilal in Saudi Arabia on December 8.

Karius impressed and insisted afterwards that it “felt like my first game”, implying the intensity partly mirrored that of a competitive game.

Yet, despite Howe’s firm belief that performances in training determine performances during matches, there is an internal acceptance that Karius’ form will only be genuinely tested at Wembley.

Preparation is one thing, but is Karius actually any good? Does he warrant the “Liverpool flop” tag? Or is he a better goalkeeper than he is given credit for?

“I’ve played over 200 games in the first division and national teams, so I knew my qualities,” Karius said in December. “But, of course, last season was difficult.”

While Karius is certainly a downgrade on an in-form Pope, the German’s appraisal of himself has merit.

Manchester City were convinced by Karius’ performance for Germany under-16s, signing him as a teenager in 2009. Although he did not make it at the Etihad, Trippier was his contemporary in the academy and describes him as an “aggressive, confident, very good goalkeeper”.

By the time he joined Liverpool from Mainz in 2015, he was viewed as one of the Bundesliga’s most-promising goalkeepers.

Unfortunately, he is remembered at Liverpool for his frailties rather than his strengths. Following unconvincing performances during both legs of the Champions League semi-final against Roma in 2018 — including gifting Edin Dzeko a goal — came his Real nightmare in Kyiv.

First, as shown below, at 0-0 in the final, he inexplicably waited for Karim Benzema to close him down, which allowed the Frenchman to block his throw and the ball rolled into the net.

Then, at 2-1, Gareth Bale let fly from 30 yards. Although the shot swerved, it arrowed directly towards Karius, only for the goalkeeper to lose its flight and flap the ball into the net.

Karius later tweeted that he knew he “messed everything up” and was “infinitely sorry”, but he still received vile death threats in the aftermath. Yet medical tests carried out in the days after the final showed Karius had been concussed during that second half, the result of an earlier collision.

And in the first half in Kyiv, he had shown his excellent shot-stopping skills, reacting well to dive to his left and parry away a point-blank header from an unchallenged Cristiano Ronaldo.

A couple of stats do suggest that, over his wider Liverpool career, Karius was more reliable than supporters recall. He never lost a Premier League game at Anfield across 17 matches — curiously, only Albert Riera and Stephen Warnock have a better record — while he made more errors leading to goals (three) in his final four appearances for Liverpool than he did in his previous 45 (two).

Even so, Klopp’s insistence on Saturday that “you can absolutely rely” on Karius belies his treatment of his compatriot. Despite insisting he would stick by the goalkeeper come 2018-19, Klopp signed Alisson and Karius joined Besiktas on a two-year loan later that summer.

And even though he was accused of going “a bit stagnant” by the Turkish club’s then-manager Senol Gunes and becoming embroiled in a pay dispute which he took to FIFA, Karius made 67 appearances in Turkey.

To analyse his competitive performances since his last Liverpool appearance, we can look at his expected goals on target (xGOT) across each season. This measures the post-shot probability of an on-target shot resulting in a goal, based on the combination of chance quality (xG), the placement of the shot and the angle from which it is taken.

Essentially, it measures how likely, on average, a goalkeeper will save a shot — so if they concede a greater number of goals than their xGOT, they are underperforming, and if they concede fewer, they are overperforming.

As the table below shows, at Besiktas, Karius underperformed his xGOT by -2.8 and -3.6 in each of his two Super Lig seasons. Those are not hugely concerning figures, however, and at Union Berlin, he actually outperformed his xGOT by +1.1. Admittedly, just four league appearances is far too small a sample size to draw conclusions from, but it is more encouraging.

Perhaps more relevant to this final is how Karius performed during the highly-pressurised games in Turkey: the fiery Istanbul derbies.

On the whole, in matches against Galatasaray and Fenerbahce during the 2019-20 season, Karius attempted to be proactive, did not make any major mistakes and didn’t seem overawed. He was also keen to get his hands on the ball whenever possible, sometimes to the team’s benefit, and on occasion to their detriment.

Against Galatasaray, for example, Karius came off his line to try to punch a corner, only to connect with it poorly, allowing Henry Onyekuru to get a shot away. In mitigation, Karius’ team-mate missed an easy header, while the German also did well to close Onyekuru down, leading to an substandard shot.

Against Fenerbahce, meanwhile, Karius made an excellent save within two minutes to deny Tolga Cigerci from the edge of the area. Not only did Karius show good athleticism to fling himself to his right, but he also got a strong hand to the shot to palm it away.

In the same match, a 3-1 defeat, he was beaten by a wonderstrike, although Ozan Tufan’s 25-yard effort did arrive from distance and you could argue caught Karius out at his near post, but it swerved in the air and it would be harsh to blame the goalkeeper.

And what about that Al Hilal friendly in December, Karius’ most recent match and a game he described as “competitive”?

Well, from an expected conceded goals of 1.4, he kept a clean sheet across the 45 minutes he played.

He made two particularly impressive saves, the first from former Manchester United striker Odion Ighalo, when he managed to get down low to divert the Nigerian’s close-range shot away.

If the first was a reflex stop, the second showed Karius’ athleticism, with the German launching himself to his left to tip Andre Carrillo’s whipped free-kick away.

The senior leadership group at Newcastle — comprised of Burn, Trippier, Jamaal Lascelles, Callum Wilson and Matt Ritchie — have been content with Karius’ performances in training since his arrival and appear confident he will deliver this weekend.

They have spoken among themselves, urging calm throughout the squad and stressing they are still strong enough as a group to succeed.

Ultimately, however, as Howe himself put it, Pope, “has been a rock for us, he’s been outstanding” and “now it is time for someone else to stand up”.

Is Karius ready to do so? Nobody at Newcastle can definitively say.

A bizarre series of events brought Karius to Tyneside in the first place and then peculiar circ*mstances conspired to earn him a Wembley outing. Both Newcastle and Karius hope this rollercoaster tale has personal redemption as its climax.

(Top photo: Serena Taylor/Newcastle United via Getty Images)